Who will you believe - the weather guesser, or your own eyes? This is a good question to ask, as we look at last Friday's predictions, and compare it to reality. The weather guessers were calling for 2-6 inches of snow, but we had rain instead. There is a little bit of a difference between 6 inches of snow, and some rain. Many school kids were disappointed to see what was probably the last chance for a snow day slip just out of reach.
This morning the report for my areas shows a 20% chance of rain. Does this mean it will rain 20% of the day? Is it a 20% likelihood that it will rain at all? This percentage means nothing to me. I need data I can use to plan my commute, not a report aimed at the people who are getting in their car and driving to work. For these people, they need to know the umbrella needs to be with them, and how much hair spray they should spray to protect themselves from split ends, and "rain scarf head".
My honey and I were very involved in sailboat racing a few years ago, If we planned our sailing around the weather, we would've missed out on many great sailing days. We'd also waste bad sailing days waiting for what doesn't exist. Even in Biblical times, they knew the futility in chasing the wind, and noted the futilty of chasing the wind throughout the Book of Leviticus.
So how do I make the determination if I will ride the bike to work or not? I generally look out our kitchen window after I wake up. If the patio is wet, it's probably a good guess that it either just rained, or is presently raining. My next step is to look at the hourly report on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Web site. This is great information, since it turns the 20% chance of rain into an hour-by-hour prediction of the rain in any specific area. I pay special attention to the times I will be bike commuting.
I didn't think to grab the data from early today, so I can't see what the rain prediction was for my morning commute. I can see from this graph that the 20% chance of precipitation is a blend for the day, with an 80% chance of rain for when I am eating my lunch in the comfort of my cubicle. The likelihood of rain tails off as the day goes on, with a 45% chance of getting wet on my ride home. And who cares if I get wet riding home. I only wear machine washable clothes when I bike commute.
What I may do before I leave today, is look at the radar images for my area. I can animate these, and see how quickly the storms are moving. I have used these maps to time my exit from work to avoid thunder storms. I either leave a little early, or hang around a little longer, and avoid the worst of it. I prefer Weatherbug for analyzing radar images. Their prediction capabilities are much more precise at the local level than the main stream media or the National Weather Service. In 2004, the 25 passengers on a water taxi in Maryland may not have been dumped into frigid waters if the skipper had been using Weatherbug instead of the National Weather Service. Weatherbug was warning about 60 MPH wind bursts at the local level. NWS was providing a blended report, until after the storm had passed, when they issued the warnings.
This morning the report for my areas shows a 20% chance of rain. Does this mean it will rain 20% of the day? Is it a 20% likelihood that it will rain at all? This percentage means nothing to me. I need data I can use to plan my commute, not a report aimed at the people who are getting in their car and driving to work. For these people, they need to know the umbrella needs to be with them, and how much hair spray they should spray to protect themselves from split ends, and "rain scarf head".
My honey and I were very involved in sailboat racing a few years ago, If we planned our sailing around the weather, we would've missed out on many great sailing days. We'd also waste bad sailing days waiting for what doesn't exist. Even in Biblical times, they knew the futility in chasing the wind, and noted the futilty of chasing the wind throughout the Book of Leviticus.
So how do I make the determination if I will ride the bike to work or not? I generally look out our kitchen window after I wake up. If the patio is wet, it's probably a good guess that it either just rained, or is presently raining. My next step is to look at the hourly report on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Web site. This is great information, since it turns the 20% chance of rain into an hour-by-hour prediction of the rain in any specific area. I pay special attention to the times I will be bike commuting.
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| Hourly weather graph showing my local area prediction for today |
What I may do before I leave today, is look at the radar images for my area. I can animate these, and see how quickly the storms are moving. I have used these maps to time my exit from work to avoid thunder storms. I either leave a little early, or hang around a little longer, and avoid the worst of it. I prefer Weatherbug for analyzing radar images. Their prediction capabilities are much more precise at the local level than the main stream media or the National Weather Service. In 2004, the 25 passengers on a water taxi in Maryland may not have been dumped into frigid waters if the skipper had been using Weatherbug instead of the National Weather Service. Weatherbug was warning about 60 MPH wind bursts at the local level. NWS was providing a blended report, until after the storm had passed, when they issued the warnings.
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| Doppler Radar shows storms |
When I animated the abov map, I could see the rain is coming in from the west to the east. So I can be relatively sure that I won't get wet if I were to ride now, although the hourly prediction is showing the chance of rain close to 80% for right now. I also used my two eyes, and just looked outside. No rain in sight.
Had I used the weather report as my sole predictor of weather, I'd have drive in today. By being my own weather data analyzer, I was able to bike commute. In all my years of doing my own data analysis, I can think of only one time when I got wet on my ride home. I was prepared, and had packed stuff I could get wet in for the commute.
With that said, I guess I can expect to get wet on my ride home. The mere fact that I just told everyone how I determined it was okay to bike commute today, and that I didn't pack any snivel gear, is probably more than enough reason to have "He Who Controls Weather" drench me for a good laugh, and to teach me humility.
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rain scarf head?????? that's soooooo 1960s!
ReplyDeleteI end up with "Helmet Head", where I have ridges of hair that run front to back to note where the ventilation is on my helmet. I wonder if the manufacturers should come up with a ventilation system that is in the shape of their logo, then I could walk around with a "Bell" logo on the top of my head. I'd be less likely to try and comb it out.
ReplyDeleteAn astute reader rightfully pointed out that I was looking at tomorrow's graph. The actual likelihood of rain on my way home is under 10%. I will keep my weather guesser eye on tomorrow's data as the day progresses...
ReplyDelete