Determining when to take action

I have a focus group which provides advice on how to write better blogs. I refer to this focus group as "my honey". Yesterday the focus group pointed out that my previous blog, Life Lessons from an Erector Set, lacked a call to action. There was nothing the rare reader could do as the result of my post.

What separates us humans from the rest of the animal kingdom, is that we can change the channels on a television set, and we can contemplate what to do tomorrow. Animals live from moment to moment, reacting to what's around them. This is why we don't see animals protest for animal rights. Okay, part of the reason is that most animals eat other animals, but that's not the point. They are too busy sleeping, eating, and having sex. The astute reader is now trying to prove me wrong, and they are probably thinking of Charlie Sheen. But Charlie can plan who to have sex with tomorrow, as well as where, and then tweet about it.

So this got me thinking about how we determine when to take action, and what type of action to take. Project Risk Management is a framework, or knowledge area we can draw from. In a previous post, I discussed how our current government needs to apply portfolio management concepts to the budgeting process. A few days later, Governor Christie announced that he had identified key priorities, and has budgeted to address these first. I wonder if he reads this blog.

Many people in the general public apply a framework when they see that their cable program provider is about to remove their favorite channel, or that the NFL may not be playing next season. The massive fear they experience as a result of not having their favorite show on Tuesday night has them cowering in the corner, dreading the thought they will have to actually have a conversation with the other people in the house. Or they may be forced to read something from a book. They quickly call their smartest friend (referred to as a lifeline), and ask them who their Congressman is. If they are lucky, their friend is in the same district, knows the name, and provides the information. A call is made to the Congressman, threatening them with loss of their congressional seat if they allow the channel to be removed.

So let's pull the above scenario apart. The person is identifying a risk, and determining the probability of it occurring. Many people confuse possibility and probability. Something that is possible, is that an alien race will suddenly appear, and as a gift of friendship will cure cancer, pay off all of our mortgages, and give everyone free television connections. It is possible. But what we must do is look at probability instead of possibility. Is it probable that a philanthropic alien race will rescue us? If you think so, it's okay. We need people to keep us laughing in hard times. In the case of the cable television battle, the person has been convinced by the television infotainment wizards (generally labeled "news") that they will start losing their "right" to their favorite channel, or have to pay more to receive it.

After we identify the risk, and determine probability, we look at the impact the risk will have on us if it actually happens. In our example case with the television channel, the impact is that this person will be adrift on Tuesday nights, having to fend for themselves in terms of entertainment. They will be impacted, because they will need to surf the other 1,200 channels for an hour or two to find something else to watch. This is cruel. Can you imagine having to join the series "24" halfway through? Or another impact will be that they will pay more for their television signal.

Now our next step is to determine what to do about the risk. Here are the options we have when faced with a risk or decision.

• Avoidance - In the above scenario, the person would do the simple thing. They'd cancel their television connection, and find something better to do on Tuesdays. 
• Reduction - This is the option the person chose. They are trying to mitigate the issue by having their Congressman fix it to their benefit.
• Sharing - If the person decided to change service providers, they'd be transferring the risk. This is referred to as sharing, or insuring the risk. 
• Retention- Suck it up, and budget the money needed to pay for the extras. 

There is how you determine what to do when thinks are messed up. This is your call to action (or inaction).

If you are the focus group... I mean "in" the focus group, please let me know if this satisfies the need. And if you are a reader who enjoyed this post, please share using the clever social network buttons at the bottom of this post. Comments, questions, and derogatory remarks are always welcome.

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